Overview:
USO one-year reading for 2024
Status: January 13th, 2024 8:56 p.m. Eastern time, reading price is USD $68.20
Behavioral Trends in 2024
The overall theme and behavior for USO in 2024 is price swings – a wild ride – back and forth between important highs and important lows
Behavior highest high:
Behavior around the highest high, we have a notable decline to and through support on a one-year chart scale to meet another support on a one-year chart scale. We rotate sideways along that support out of that high. Possible highest highs: March, April, May.
Behavior around the lowest low:
We have a sideways rally along a diagonal trend line that breaks through a horizontal resistance, meets another resistance, and then pulls back to somewhere between those two price levels. It looks like the price swings are going to be more focused around the lows than the highs. Not to say that we won’t have swings into highs, but there’s more of a correlation to the lowest lows as far as the price swings. So we’re going to swing back into the lows multiple times throughout 2024. Possible lowest lows: February, May, June, September and November.
Possible highest highs: March, April, May
Possible lowest lows: February, Early April, May, June, September and November
Monthly Overview:
JANUARY:
We have an unexpected move higher in early January. There’s a lot of price change covered, and there’s an important resistance on a one-year chart scale highlighted. We probably see the high twice in January – a new local high towards the later part of January. Behavior around the low of January is an unexpected move higher out of seemingly negative chart behavior or seemingly overwhelming headwinds. This big move will break out of a trough on multi-day scale right around the cusp of January / February. That rally doesn’t last long.
At this breakout right around the cusp of January / February, this would be probably a good place to open up a partial short, and if we go any higher in February, I’d add to that short. There should be a good opportunity to close out of that short in the second part of February or on the cusp of February / March, but probably the later part of February would work best.
FEBRUARY:
In February, there’s a big move higher out of a trough on a one-year chart scale. On the cusp of January / February, there’s probably a breakout on a multi-day scale, but that rally doesn’t last long. There’s another trough between the first and second week, followed by another move to the upside, taking us to another prominent peak with price swings around the February highs. It’s important to note that we probably drop notably from price swings around the February highs in the earlier part of February.
In the later part of February, there’s a prominent move higher to a peak out of a prominent trough. There’s a big move higher to a crest on the cusp of February / March, and then there’s an important resistance highlighted at the Feb / March cusp that we have failed to break through many times before on a one-year chart scale.
Trade opportunities:
Go short at a breakout right around the cusp of January / February. This should be a good opportunity to close out of that short in February. Towards the later part of January, in the midst of a low before that big breakout move on the cusp, a long position could be opened. Holding that long until the March high would be advisable, as it will be the highest price level thus far. Additionally, opening a short position at the March high to close at a low in late April is recommended, which is very likely the same price level as the February low.
MARCH:
In March, there is a resistance that has failed to break through many times before on a one-year chart scale. A decline is likely when meeting that key resistance that has been hit multiple times and failed to break through. This decline probably occurs when meeting
In March, there is a resistance that has failed to break through many times before on a one-year chart scale. A decline is likely when meeting that key resistance that has been hit multiple times and failed to break through. This decline probably occurs when meeting that resistance, likely on the cusp of February and March, before a big move to reach the March high. This high forms after a decline, marked by a big move to the upside. A higher price level and a lot of price movement to reach a March high about midway through the month are observed. Behavior near the march low may not last that long because there are price swings towards the later part of March. Notably, there is a prominent trough in the later part of the month after the prominent high mid-month. Following that trough, a prominent peak occurs, with a lot of ground covered around that price swinging in the last week of March.
APRIL:
In April, there is another really prominent trough standing out on a one-year chart scale, and a big move out of it followed by a full retrace of that move back down. There is a sideways rotation that occurs along the April low, usually indicating sideways rotation, a little bit of a rise off of it, and then a fall back down and more sideways rotation along that same key support. Caution is advised near the April high.
The April low is probably early in April, appearing twice along key support. This support is important on a one-year chart scale, with a move higher and probably a full retracement.
In the later part of April, there is a big move pushing the upper end of a range higher on a one-year chart scale, taking it to an important peak or crest.
Trade opportunities:
A long position could be opened at the early April low before pushing the upper end of a range higher in April into May. Closing it at the early May highest high is recommended.
MAY:
In early May, there’s uncertainty about whether the important peak occurs in early or late May, though it’s leaning towards late May. (But) In any case, there is a notable decline following the important peak in May. In the later part of May, a sideways fluctuating decline occurs that precedes a rally, and there is a decline through key support to revisit a support level on a one-year chart scale that was recently met.
Trade opportunities:
After pushing the upper end of a range higher in early May, reaching a high, there is a decline off the high, which is another lowest low for the year. This offers an opportunity to open a long position with the intent to close it at the same price level as the May high in June, in the midst of a rally. Use caution, as this sideways fluctuating rally on a multi-day scale precedes a very big decline, so that price level, the same high as the May high, is an exit for long positions and an entry for shorts.
JUNE:
In the earlier part of June we have a rally. There was a rally following a sideways fluctuating decline off the May high into lows, followed by a big move to the upside from the June lows, offering a trade opportunity.
Towards the end of June, a sharp decline off the high of June is witnessed, which is another prominent high. This means the June low occurs twice, presenting a notable trade opportunity around that low. There is really significant decline off the June high. This will be the sharpest decline slide from June.
Trade Opportunities:
The June low also offers an opportunity to open a long position, which could then be closed after a fast sudden move higher to a July high on the cusp of July and August or in early August. The same highs seen here in July and August appear around September and October. In the midst of those price swings, there are lows too.
JULY:
In early July, there are a lot of price changes, and there will be an important opportunity. It’s hard to say if it’s to the downside or the upside. The June high might end up being in July, or it could be seen again in July. There have been many back-and-forth price swings throughout the year, but there is an important trade opportunity in the earlier part of July.
A fast, sudden move higher will take the price to the July high, followed by the halting of a rally or the conclusion of a multi-day rally in the later part of July. In the later part of July, there should be some movement to the upside and some movement to the downside, with price swings in early July or late July.
The July low is an important price level on a larger chart scale, and it will flatten out there, at least temporarily. It may very well be the same price level as the March low. Then there is another prominent high on a larger chart scale, either in the later part of July or in early August.
AUGUST:
In early August, probably around the cusp of July and August, there’s this pop and drop. Then, in the later part of August, there is a failed attempt to break through key resistance at another prominent peak followed by a decline through key support. Despite expectations based on technical analysis, the market disappoints as it turns around instead of breaking through key resistance, leading to a decline through key support. The August low forms when there is a period of sideways rotation followed by a big move higher, standing out on a one-year chart scale with a prominent peak. Towards the end of August, there is a notable decline off of that.
SEPTEMEBER:
In early September, there is a peak, followed by a notable decline that increases with momentum moving forward in time. Starting with a high in early September, a trough appears in mid-September. The September low will successfully turn resistance into support near the September low. This low is also within close time proximity to another prominent high on a one-year chart scale.
In the later part of September, there is a sideways rotation along a key support level that’s important on a one-year chart scale. However, a trade opportunity arises around the cusp of September and October at a prominent peak.
OCTOBER:
In early October, there is a sharp drop that will stand out, and we revisit an important support level on the one-year chart scale. The October low forms when there is a near decline through multiple support levels that start at a near overbought peak on the one-year chart scale. Following that, there is a prominent peak on the one-year chart scale towards the mid of the month, presenting a trade opportunity.
Another peak occurs mid-month, and there is a trough in the early part of the month and another trough later in the month. An important price level and resistance level on a multi-year scale are highlighted in October at the October highs. Subsequently, there should be a sharp drop to a prominent trough around the end of October.
The second peak in October is likely a brief peak at an important price level on a multi-year scale, followed by a decline through multiple support levels, leading to the trough around the end of October, on the cusp of November.
Trade Opportunities:
There is a U-shaped dip between the high of October into November and then back into the same price level in December. The October high can be utilized to close out longs and open shorts, closing the shorts (at) a November dip. A long position can be opened because the price levels of the October highs will be revisited in early December, which is where exiting those longs would be advisable.
NOVEMBER:
In November, there is a prominent trough on a one-year chart scale. A rally from that trough leads to a November high where price swings are observed. The November high likely occurs more than once, probably twice, with crisscrossing back and forth through the same price level around that high. The third cross to the upside confirms a bullish trend in many cases. An important resistance level is highlighted in the later part of November with significant price changes, presenting trade opportunities. Following that a notable decline occurs in the later part of November, or possibly around the cusp of November and December.
Trade Opportunities:
There’s a sharp drop to a November low. A long position could be opened before a rally commences, increasing with momentum moving forward into December. Starting (out) of a decline, it will be a big move from the bottom of the range to the top of the range. It might even be the lows of the year again. You should expect to exit out of that at the same price levels as the highs of October.
DECEMBER:
In early December, there’s a peak around the cusp of November and December. There will be a big decline from the second November high. This big decline leads into early December, where from the bottom of the range, there will be a rally all the way to the top of a range, taking us to another prominent peak on a one-year chart scale.
There is a period of volatility near the December high that ends with a fast upward move. Following that, the December low forms after a significant decline that started in November. An important range on a one-year chart scale is highlighted in the later part of December.