S&P One-Year Overview Reading for 2024
Current status: June 29 2023 6:57pm, Eastern Time.
Behavioral trends in 2024:
The highest high is probably between the first and second week of the month of December, with the lowest low there around the cusp of April / May.
We’re looking for a decline that offers a significant opportunity to open up a long position. Out of trough, we go into what’s a highest high thus far, and then we decline into a low in April / May cusp from which there is a big move out of that low into June, where we have a crest, and then another high in October and possibly another high in November.
Trade opportunities
JANUARY
There appears to be a low at the beginning of January. We shoot out of that. There’s a U shaped dip in early January, a peak to a trough to a peak, erratic behavior around the high, back and forth through the same price level, in the midst of which we’ll revisit a crest. Probably from a crest in December 2023, we will reach the highest high for January in the third week. It looks like we even push the upper end of a range higher. There’s maybe some decline near the cusp of January / February, but it won’t last.
FEBRUARY
There’s a big move to the upside, and we have a breakout to take us to a highest high for February. There’s either a sharp drop after we push the upper end of a range higher, and then out of that sharp drop we move to a highest high in early to mid February or we just push the upper end of a range higher straight through into February, and then we have a sharp decline near the cusp. Hard to determine, but there’s a sharp, sharp decline off of a highest high, and it takes us to a trough that’ll stand out on a one year to scale.
MARCH
We attempt to establish support in early March. Again,we have mixed bullish behavior, especially near the high for March. There’s a sideways “S” formation; we decline from resistance and meet support and return to resistance and go all the way back to support. It’s usually horizontal support and resistance, but on this grand of a scale, it might be at an angle. Behavior around the low for March, there’s a sell off, a brief peak that’s easily missed at an overbought peak or crescent, and we sell off from that pretty notably through multiple support levels, probably the second or third week of the month. There’s a big move from the bottom of range to the top of a range or to new highs at the end of March.
APRIL
It looks like that move continues into April with a fast, sudden move higher, rallying into an important peak. I don’t think that this is a highest high here. I think we probably see a pretty sharp drop in the first and second week of April and then another pretty sharp drop in later part of April after a sudden move higher. In early April that we want to take protection out against our long positions, or we want to close long positions and possibly open short positions. And then there’s an important support level highlighted on a multi year kind of scale in late April. Behavior around the lowest low for April is period of volatility and a fast, sudden move higher that stands out and ends that period of volatility.
MAY
There is an important low that’s highlighted in early May. There’s a lot of price change covered between an important crest that’s the high for May, and the trough that we see at the end of May. The high and the low for May are within close time proximity to each other. It looks like there’s a lot of price change near an important resistance in May. Behavior around the low – there’s a significant opportunity standing out on at least a one year scale which is one of the best opportunities of the year. From a decline into a lowest low of May, there’s a significant opportunity to open up a long position.
JUNE
There is another opportunity to open up a long position in June with some sideways, fluctuating decline takes us into a prominent trough. There’s an important support level highlighted around the June low. It’ll be important on a one year scale. Behavior around the high for June, we have sideways rotation that increases with bullish momentum. Behavior out of the low, there’s either severely oversold territory or there’s a short squeeze that will stand out on a one year scale as one of the biggest moves of the year. It could be to fill a gap down, or it could be a gap up, It’s a significant move to the upside out of a low. It looks like we probably see the low twice between May and June, followed by a prominent move to a crest to a high towards the end of June. That prominent move higher is followed by a prominent move back down, a partial retracement of that move towards the beginning of July.
JULY
Near the July high, there’s multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance on a multi day scale. Behavior around the low for July, we have a period moving along sideways, bumping along resistance. In the end of July, there is a brief peak that’s easily missed at a near oversold territory and then a sell off.
AUGUST
There’s an important fake out, or shake out, an intentional misdirection here in early August and one of the more prominent trade opportunities for the year, at the beginning of August, and possibly at the high for August as well. There are pretty significant fake outs here, making it appear that we’re going to go lower. We have a sharp decline into an August low followed by a pop and drop in late August. We want to cash in on a position that’s a high for August. It’s probably a crest that we sell off from right around the cusp of August which would be an opportunity to close long positions rather than holding them all the way to November, where we see another high, because we probably have some mixed behavior in September and October. One of the most significant opportunities of 2024 is in early August, in the midst of a decline, to open up a long position, and there’s a pop and drop in late August, creating a peak near September.
SEPTEMBER
Pretty notably, in early September, we rally into key resistance, and it looks like, through technicals, like we’re going to break through that resistance, but instead, we turn around and we decline through key support with a completion of a rally near the high for September. Behavior out of the September low is a rally along a diagonal trend line, breaking through horizontal resistance to a second resistance for pulling back to somewhere between those two price levels. There a lot of price change and a notable trade opportunity around the end of September. The trade opportunity around the third week of September involves a lot of price movement to the upside in late September.
OCTOBER
Entering into October, there’s a severe decline. It doesn’t take us to a lowest low. It just will be a sharp decline. There’s sideways rotation along the low along key support for the October low, and there’s a new high mid October. Based on the amount of movement that we see to the upside, it could end up being a new high here in the first and possibly in the third week of October which is where we would close out of a significant trade. And then out of that peak there is a notable drop to downside in late October, breaking through support to meet a second support, and then rotating sideways along that support.
NOVEMBER
That sideways rotation takes us into November where there’s an unexpected and substantial move to the upside and a trade opportunity. We rally along a diagonal trend line into the high, where we have a fast, sudden move higher marking end of the rally along that diagonal trend line. It’s followed by a breakdown through that diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down. This is the second most likely place for a highest high for the year. December is likely where the highest high is, but we probably break new ground in November. There’s a big move out of the November low. That highest high comes out of a move that starts out of the November low and reaches for a distant resistance with a lot of price change into the high of December, where we likely have a highest high.
You’re definitely going to see decline on a multi-day scale in November. It’ll be a decline followed by a notable move to the upside. There’s a resistance level that on a multi-day scale that we’re going to rally into. And then pretty abruptly from it, we’ll turn around and we’ll decline pretty notably.
Behavior around the highest high: We have a rally on a multi-day scale offering the opportunity to open up a short position and close long positions. It looks like there’s a lot of trade opportunities. One of those trade opportuniies will be on November 7 where we have a rally to the upside on a multi-day scale standing out on the 7th, and it offers opportunity to close longs and open shorts. We have prominent peaks on November 4th, 7th, and 8th. On the 15th, we have a full moon with multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance. Usually what coincides with the full moon, or within a couple of days or a few days ahead of it is the peak of fear in the market for the month and the day of the full moon in often bullish. It looks like we have a gap down over the weekend into the 18th.
Behavior around the lowest low: We have a failed attempt to break through key resistance followed by a decline through key support. That’s on a multi-day scale and the decline will take us in through key support into the lowest low for the month. But what’s important about this failed attempt to break through key resistance is that we’re going to be expecting to break through it based on technical analysis. Usually what happens is there’s false support established before this move to the upside and there’s a big move higher, testing resistance, looking like we’re going to break through. Instead, we turn around, we decline through the falsely established support. We will likley have our first lowest low on November 6th. We might see lows around the second week and November 29 may be another low.
DECEMBER
There’s a resistance that we’ve bumped up against several times, that we failed to break through in early December. Off of the December low, there’s a sideways, fluctuating rally that proceeds a decline. We have a crest that we sell off from down to and through support, we do a U shaped reversal below that support come back and reuse it as support. The highest high is probably between the first and second week of the month of December. We possibly see a lowest level over here as well. Behavior off the lowest low is going to be a significant move up. It’ll stand out on a chart when there’s a big move, one of the biggest moves of the year. This breakout through resistance doesn’t actually hold. There’s a crest that we sell off from.