Overview:
Kadena’s one-year reading for 2024
Status: November 18th, 2023 2:21 p.m. Eastern time, reading price is 0.5702 or just over 57 cents USD.
Behavioral Trends in 2024:
The overall theme of behavior for the year includes a notable rally on a one-year chart scale that will stand out, offering opportunities to close long positions and open short positions. This rally is combined with an overbought crest, followed by a significant sell-off through multiple support levels, again on a one-year chart scale.
Behavior around the highest high:
Around the highest high, we have a sideways fluctuating rally that precedes a sharp decline. When that rally ends, a sharp decline follows, marked by significant movement.
Behavior around the Lowest low:
Around the low, there will be an important resistance level that stands out on a one-year chart scale, a level we have failed to break through many times before. This resistance will be highlighted near the lows or lows for the year.
Monthly Overview:
JANUARY:
In early January, there are three crosses back and forth through the same price level up, down, and back up confirming a bullish trend. Mid-month, there is a trough with sideways rotation near the January low. There’s a big move higher, possibly a breakout on a multi-day scale, out of the low with sideways rotation near the January high, presenting a trade opportunity.
Later in January, there is a crest from which we sell off through multiple support levels.
FEBRUARY:
In early February, a fast, sudden move higher on a multi-day scale leads to a breakout, reaching the highest high for February. The February low is likely towards the beginning of February with a high near the cusp of March.
MARCH:
In early March, there’s a notable rally, but it doesn’t hold, and we end up back at lows mid-month, presenting an opportunity. A prominent low stands out in March, with multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance on a one-year chart scale.
The rally then turns into a sharp decline through key support. Towards the later part of March, possibly middle to late March, there is a significant trough, maybe two, on a one-year chart scale, followed by a sideways fluctuating decline.
APRIL:
In early April, the decline into the March low continues with a sideways fluctuating decline. This leads to some volatility near the April low and a sharp drop. When we create the trough near the April low, there is a big move to the upside, probably by the end of the first week of April, possibly taking us to a high or crest, followed by a notable sell-off through multiple supports.
Then we see a U-shaped reversal, coming back to reuse one of the supports near the end of the month, with some sideways or bearish rotation into May.
MAY:
As we enter May, there is an important high in the second or third week, marked by a prominent move higher. This is followed by a full retracement of that move as we exit May.
The low of May will form after a failed attempt to break key resistance on a one-year chart scale, followed by a decline through key support into a low or a prominent trough on a one-year chart scale early in the month.
JUNE:
In early June, there is mixed behavior with a notable decline, likely affecting the broader crypto market. This decline increases in momentum towards the end of June. It is advised to be cautious near the lows in June and avoid impulsive actions, as there will be significant price swings.
JULY:
As we enter July, there is volatility near the July low, ending with a fast move higher, taking us to an important price level on the cusp of July or possibly late July and again in August. The move to the July high occurs despite a decline or seemingly overwhelming headwinds, indicating resilience in reaching that high. The high is likely around the cusp of July or possibly into August, and there’s also a very significant low during this period.
AUGUST:
In early August, after a brief peak that can be easily missed, there is a decline through key support levels. The August low is likely seen twice, with a prominent move out of it followed by a full retracement back down. There is a lot of price change in the later part of August, offering opportunities to trade in both directions, though not simultaneously. This involves a reversal, potentially a full retracement, indicating significant movement.
An important crest occurs on the cusp of August and September, with significant price changes and an important trough following a decline. It’s advised not to chase that crest, suggesting a cautious approach. The pattern includes a crest, followed by a trough, and then movement out of that decline.
SEPTEMEBER:
In early September, there is a significant move from the bottom to the top of a range on a multi-day scale, standing out on a one-year chart scale. A support level is established near the September high, acting as an important price level on a multi-year scale.
Out of the September low, there is a rally along a diagonal trend line, breaking through horizontal resistance and meeting a second resistance, ending with a fast move higher, likely on the cusp of September.
OCTOBER:
In October or early October, a fast move higher is followed by a breakdown through the diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down. This notable move higher successfully turns resistance into support at an important price level on a multi-year scale. The month is mixed, with the October low likely occurring mid-month, revisiting a support level in a period of sideways rotation. This support level, recently an opportunity, might be revisiting another significant low similar to August’s price level.
There is an overbought peak in late October from which we sell off at this important price level. A lot of price change occurs amidst the volatility.
NOVEMBER:
In early November, there are price swings near the November high, which is difficult to determine but may occur later in the month. There is a failed attempt to break through key resistance, followed by a decline through key support. The resistance might initially appear to be a breakout point based on technical indicators, but instead, there is a decline through key support.
Around the November low, there is sideways movement, bumping along resistance and occasionally breaking through. Overall, the movement is bullish but primarily characterized by sideways behavior.
DECEMBER:
In early December, there is a “pop and drop” pattern, highlighting an important upper end of a range at the December high, likely towards the end of the month. There is a notable opportunity at the December low, followed by a fast move higher, standing out on a one-year chart.
Late December looks bullish, with indications that 2025 may also be bullish, though there could be at least one sharp drop. Overall, the outlook is probably bearish, but it leads to a significant move higher.
2025 Market Outlook for KDA
In 2025, there is an indication of a significant rally, with a peak expected around February. It would be wise to exit long positions and open short positions around this time, closing them the following month when the market reaches the lowest lows thus far. A potential long position could be opened in March at these lows and then closed around April or May when the same highs are likely revisited. It might be a double visit, making it crucial to monitor the market closely during these months.
Analysis and Price Predictions
On a multi-year scale, the market appears to be pushing the upper end of a range higher. A notable opportunity may arise in October, possibly revisiting a support level, or reaching the lowest low seen in early August, which is likely to be revisited in October. It is challenging to determine if the highest high will be in February or May, but they are expected to be similar. A sharp drop could occur around October-November, potentially reaching the year’s lowest low.
For those considering long-term positions, it might be best to wait until October to enter at the known low price level, avoiding premature entries in August. If a lower price level is reached in December, adding to the long position could be beneficial, as a higher price level is expected, potentially seeing a new all-time high in 2025 or 2026.
Comparing KDA to Bitcoin
Comparing KDA to Bitcoin, both are expected to have mixed performance throughout the year. Bitcoin might outperform KDA in 2024, but similar chart behaviors are anticipated for both. Monitoring these trends closely and trading responsibly will be essential, as there can be unexpected market shifts.
Summary and Investment Strategy
Overall, 2025 presents opportunities for both long and short trades in KDA. Key trading windows include February, March, April-May, and October-November. The strategy involves careful monitoring of market lows and highs, with a focus on long-term positioning around October and potential additions in December. This is crucial to trade responsibly and not be overly confident in predictions, as market behaviors can be unpredictable.