Gold Overview for 2024
Overview:
Gold one-year reading for 2024.
Status: December 11, 2023, at 07.17 p.m. Eastern Time, gold spot price at time of reading is $1,996.70 for 1 ounce of gold.
The overall theme and behavior for gold in 2024:
A big breakout on a multi-year scale and a lot of volatility with a key resistance level capping highs also on a multi-year scale. Expect price swings back and forth and equal amounts of bulls and bears inflow and outflow in Q1, followed by a breakout. Gold is not particularly bullish 2025. We see a drop in the beginning of 2024 and we probably see gold dip a few more times in 2024 for opportunities to go long. There may be buying opportunities in April and the cusps of July/August and November/December. We likely see highs twice in the in the first quarter. We may see gold’s first high for the year in April and then potentially higher ones in September and November. We might be coming up against highs here at the end of 2024 before a notable decline and it’s going to look like we’re breaking through at the end of the year but instead in 2025 we likely turn around and decline pretty notably. I would want to be in a bearish position in anticipation of this move into another significant low in 2025.
Behavior around the highest high:
There is a tremendous amount of back-and-forth behavior going on around the highest high. We have the establishment of support with some sideways rotation followed by a big move higher standing out on a one-year chart scale minimum. That big move higher after the sideway rotation is what takes us into the high or heights for the year.
Behavior around the lowest low or lows:
Out of the low or lows for the year we should see a fast move higher singled out on a one-year chart scale minimum.
Behavioral Trends in 2024:
There will be a significant resistance level that will be difficult to break through throughout the year, leading to a lot of price swings and volatility. The volatile market will present opportunities for traders to go long (buy) before prices rise and short (sell) before prices fall. The prediction is for one or more significant price drops for gold. The overall performance of gold in 2024 compared to the S&P 500 stock market index is unclear.
Monthly Overview:
JANUARY
There might be a high price point for gold in January, potentially reaching the previous year’s highs from December 2023. Expect significant price changes around this high point. The reading also suggests a potential decline following the January high, reaching a low point for the year. There is an opportunity to get into a long at a trough on a multi-year scale.
FEBRUARY
Similar to January, February might see a key resistance level successfully turning into new support. Following the February high, the reading suggests a decline in prices, gaining momentum as the month progresses and reaching a low point by middle or end of February. Look out for a possible encounter with either the same resistance level from January or another similar resistance level. At that resistance level in February where there is an opportunity to close a long, you could open up a short and close the short at a trough in the middle or the end of February. The beginning of march may be even lower
MARCH
Watch out for a double bottom and sideways rally and a break out. March might experience a big dip mid month followed by another rally. Look out for another prominent peak at the end of March. However, be cautious as there might be a “fake out” designed to trigger impulsive decisions. After moving higher into an early March rally there will be another opportunity to open a long position mid month which you could partially close at a high in May.
APRIL
A key resistance level will be the central theme for 2024 gold prices. Expect to trade around this level with significant price swings in both directions. April could be a contender for the highest highs of the year. However, there’s a possibility of even higher highs in September and November. Look out for a potential trading opportunity around the April highs. There is an opportunity to open a short at the April high and close out of that short position in the early part of June or on the cusp of May/June. If you miss that opportunity to close the trade, there’s going to be a big move to the upside in June, but then we come back into a lows in July.
MAY
There is a potential rally in May along a diagonal trendline. This rally might culminate in a “fast move higher” followed by a breakdown through the trendline. Based on the breakdown after the rally, there might be a shorting opportunity in May. Look out for opening a partial short position in April and potentially adding to it in May if prices are similar or higher. The ideal exit point for the short position seems to be around early June. However, missing this window could lead to a significant upward move in June… but then we come back into a lows for the year in august /September so you could exit there.
JUNE
Following the potential low point in May, June could see a significant upward move in gold prices. If you missed the short exit point in early June, a potential consequence might be this upward move. An important support is highlighted in June on a multi-year scale. There’s a peak in the second week of June but don’t chase that rally as there is a notable decline off of the June high with sideways rotation in the later part of June. Out of the June trough, which is probably right on the cusp of the June/July, there is a move higher that pushes the upper end of a range
JULY
Following the June low, July might see an upward move pushing the upper range higher. There will likely be a failed attempt to break through the key resistance level in early July, followed by a decline through key support around the first or second week. This decline will likely establish a new July low. A sideways “S” formation or a channel with a downward slope might develop. We could see a pop and drop later in July, potentially revisiting the July high twice.
AUGUST
Overall a bullish month, there will likely be 2 brief peak easily missed at the August highs, followed by a decline through support potentially creating more than one August low. One could open a long position in mid August and exit it in October when we have a notable move reaching for distant resistance on a multi-day scale to reach an October high. If you miss that, you have another opportunity in November possibly at a higher price level. Do that quickly because there’s a low in there and then probably back to highs. We go from a high to a low to high in the last two months of 2024.
SEPTEMBER
There should be a September trough for gold prices. This could also be a good time to enter a long position.
OCTOBER
Look out for a notable price move In October, reaching for a distant resistance and potentially reaching a high point in gold prices thus for the year. There might be an opportunity to close out a long position established earlier (potentially in August or September) during the October high.
NOVEMBER
November presents another opportunity for a long position, potentially at a higher price level compared to previous highs.
DECEMBER
There is a potential low around the cusp of November-December, suggesting a price decline compared to previous lows throughout the year.
Overall Performance:
Gold comparison to S&P 500: It is unclear as to whether or not one outperforms the other, probably because there is so much mixed behavior and they have such a similar pattern.