Overview:
Ethereum one-year reading for 2024
Status: November 14th, 2023 8:18 p.m. Eastern time, reading price is $1,987
Behavioral Trends in 2024:
The overall theme of behavior for the year 2024 for Ethereum there is going to be a near-overbought crest that sells off notably through multiple support levels. However, with a significant rally, there is some sort of breakout towards the end of the year.
Behavior around the highest high:
Behavior around the highest high involves three crisscrosses back and forth through the same price level, first upwards through it, then downwards, and then upwards again. Usually, that pattern through the third cross to the upside confirms a rally commencement. However, on the scale of one year, not so sure that’s the case but the high for the year appears at least two times, probably 3 to 4 times.
Behavior around the lowest low:
The lowest low for the year looks like there is close time proximity to a very significant high if not the highest high for the year. There is a likelihood that we fall from that high to reach the lowest low. There are a couple of places where there is a higher probability of having a lowest low.
Monthly Overview:
JANUARY:
In early January, there’s a high, probably in early to mid-January. A peak is followed by a notable sell-off to a trough, probably around mid-month. Then, there’s a rally after establishing support with some consolidation. This rally brings us back to a high point. It’s challenging to determine the exact lowest low, occurring somewhere around the cusp of January / February
FEBRUARY:
In February, there’s a lot of price change. Moving from late January into February, there is a big move up and three pokes through the same price level, followed by a sharp decline. There could be a horizontal trend line, but there will be three pokes through an important trend line on the scale of one year. It could be horizontal; if it is, it’s usually to the downside. After that third poke, there’s a significant decline that may take us to the lowest low that haven’t seen on the cusp already.
The February low shows sideways rotation along key support on a one-year chart scale. There’s a big move to the upside in February, reaching for a distant resistance, i.e. further than the next resistance. Then, there are the February highs, within close time proximity with the lowest low. Usually, within a week or within 10 days, meaning that there’s probably a pretty sharp drop which shows that the lowest low is probably on the cusp of February.
MARCH:
In March, it’s really hard to pinpoint but this could be the first month of interest. Caution is advised in early March.
Caution is advised again amidst sideways rotation near that low, with a brief move higher through resistance, stay above it briefly, and then break back down through that same price level near the low. A pop-and-drop scenario is anticipated at the end of March. Then there’s a rally to meet the March high, leading to a prominent peak on a one-year chart scale. A significant decline around the cusp of March is notable on a one-year chart.
APRIL:
In April, there is a move notably to the upside out of a trough with a fast sudden move higher. This takes us into a rally leading to another prominent peak or crest standing out. Then, towards the end of April, there is another decline through multiple support levels, taking us down to a trough on the cusp of April-May. There are some sideways rotations in April.
MAY:
In May, there is a sharp drop that stands out in the period of sideways rotation, followed by a fast move higher off the May low, which will be a prominent trough. This forms when, out of a decline, there is a big move from the bottom of a range to the top of a range. The rally from that trough is likely to occur in the third week of May into a prominent high in late June.
The high in May will be in the earlier part of the month. There will be a trough and a high, followed by a move into a low, and then out of that low, there will be a fast move higher. However, this high in early May is expected to be followed by a notable decline through multiple support levels, leading into troughs, usually revisiting an important support level that was visited once. A prominent crest in May continues with some volatility.
JUNE:
In early June, the volatility ends with a fast sudden move higher, and we push the upper end of a range higher in late June, creating support at a higher price level. Then, the decline to the June low forms somewhere in the earlier part of June, although it is not really an important low. This period is a little difficult to interpret. Consequently, the upper end of the range higher is pushed out of June into July.
JULY:
In July, there is a failed attempt to break through a key resistance level on at least a one-year chart scale, probably on a multi-year scale, following previous chart behavior. The attempt to break through key resistance will look promising due to previous chart behavior, but instead, this will result in a turnaround and a decline through key support, leading to a significant trough, possibly marking the lowest low.
Following the low of July, there is a sideways fluctuating rally preceding a decline, followed by another sideways fluctuating rally into a peak.
AUGUST:
In August, there is a decline from that peak and key resistance, consecutively lowering specs on the way down. A notable reversal stands out on a one-year chart as the August low, followed by a big move reaching an August high towards the end of the month. This is likely the highest high or at least the same high. Look for a notable move into that high, then a peak to fall from through multiple support levels. It appears to decline from that peak near an overbought peak around the cusp of August.
SEPTEMEBER:
In September, through multiple supports, there is a rally increasing with momentum moving forward back into probably the same price level high as in August. It is hard to say if it is early or late September, but the highest high is revisited there. From the September low, there is a move higher off the low, then a full retracement back down. There are probably two highest highs, but it could just be one right on the cusp.
OCTOBER:
In October, there is a pretty big move to the downside into October, declining through support to the second support. A rotation sideways along that key support follows, then a move higher off the October low, followed by a full retracement of that low. The October high has a brief peak that easily be missed, followed by a decline through key support. There is probably an overbought peak, revisiting a support level that was a passed opportunity in late October. This is likely to come into the lowest lows here in late October or early November with quite a lot of volatility.
NOVEMBER:
In early November, the November low is likely right on the cusp of October and November or in early November. That will be the lowest low, either the same low as seen around July or late July or a lower one, but in any case, there is a notable move. In late November, there is an important resistance level highlighted, with a big move to reach the November high, where resistance is successfully turned into new support at the November high.
DECEMBER:
Rallying into December, there is an overbought peak that we sell off from at the December high, probably in early December. The decline is notable, going through multiple supports. The low for December forms a sideways fluctuating decline that precedes a notable rally. There are multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance in late December, followed by a notable drop in late December.
Sneak Preview for 2025
Early 2025 Volatility
In early 2025, there is a period of volatility and a sharp drop that stands out in that period.
Significant Resistance in 2024
On a grand scale, for 2024, we are probably looking at an important resistance, which is also a significant high on the 10-year chart. Notes from some readings suggest a price level of roughly 4,800, so it is very likely to see something like 4,800 in Ethereum towards the end of the year.
2027 and 2028
In 2027 or 2028, it may go higher, but there will be an opportunity to open a short position. A follow-up on the 10-year chart will be done soon.
Multi-Day Swing Trade Stance
For a multi-day swing trade stance, there is a significant price change in January. By paying attention, one might be able to play both directions, with the highest high followed by a significant decline into the lowest low. A rally into a March high, followed by a sharp decline, offers the best trade opportunity around the July decline and rally into August.
Long Position Opportunities
This decline provides a chance to open a long position and close it at its highest high in August. If there is a failed attempt to break through resistance in July, the decline should be used to open a long position to close in August. In the midst of a decline around the cusp of August and September, another long position should be opened and closed when revisiting the high in September.
Short Position Strategy
Opening a short position in August, in case there is no revisiting of the high and prices decline into the November lows, is advisable. Long positions should be considered during declines to exit at the high levels. Most likely, there will be another opportunity before the end of the year to exit long positions, positioning in high and short positions at separate times, not simultaneously.
Key Moments for Long Positions
Look for opportune moments around August, September, and December lows to open long positions in anticipation of movements in 2025, with some fluctuations near the high.
Conclusion
This is the forecast for Ethereum in 2024.