The overall theme and behavior for XXX in April: bearish price swings and or a sharp decline. It’s crossed with an overbought peak that we sell off from through multiple support levels.
Behavior around the highest high for the month: we should decline off of the high down to and through support to meet another support and then rotate sideways after meeting that second support. That will be out of the high.
Behavior around the lowest low for the month: we have a resistance level that we poke through three times, followed by a sharp drop off of the third poke. That sharp drop takes us into the low.
Trades:
- An opportunity to open a partial short position on the 1st at the top of a range. You could close that as early as the 2nd/3rd but I would more close on 5th, depending upon your risk tolerance
- An opportunity to open a partial long position on the 8th. I would add to that on the 10th/11th. I would hold that position into May.
- An opportunity to open a short position on the cusp of the morning of the 16th and exit on the 18th. If there’s a move higher on the 17th, you could add to the short. And then on the 18th, when we’re rotating sideways along key support on a one-day chart, there should be a sharp drop in the afternoon session. I would close out of those short positions then.
- An opportunity to open a long position on the 22nd and exit early in the day at a peak on the 23rd. If that doesn’t work out, you could exit on the 24th/25th.
- So what I would be looking for is opportunity at an important trough early in the month of April, which could easily be a lowest low for the year, actually. We want to look to enter into a long position in anticipation of this big move to the upside that should take place on the cusp of April and into May. I’d open up a partial long in the midst of a decline on the 8th if it takes us into a lowest low thus far. And then I would add to that long on the 10th or the 11th. You could also open up a long position on the 8th and close it for a day trade mid day on the 8th. Or you could open up a long at the end of the day on the 8th for a multi-month swing trade. I’d add to the swing on the 11th if we meet the same price level or lower and I would hold that long position into May.
- In the midst of a U-shaped dip on the 22nd, you could also open up a long position and close it the following day, probably early in the day on the 23rd at a peak. If that doesn’t work out, then you probably could do so on the 24th when we break through key resistance, but exit quickly as this move is followed by a breakdown through that same price level shortly thereafter.
- I would be looking for that as an exit of a long position and an entry into a short. Matter of fact, I don’t think I would enter into a short, but I would exit a long. I would look to enter into a short again somewhere around July/August. We’ll look at that in more detail when we get into the monthlies for that. As far as lows, that one’s a little tough. I’m not seeing anything there. But it does look like we will reach highs here at the end of April.
DAILIES
On the 1st, we have sideways rotation along a key support level on a multi-day scale. We should rise off of that key support to the nearest critical resistance and then fall back down and continue rotating sideways. This precedes a brief peak and full retracement in the last hour of the day. Out of the decline into the cusp of the 1st/2nd, we have like this big move from the bottom of a range all the way to the top of a range in the early part of the day on the 2nd, reaching for a distant resistance. We might even see the peak twice: on the cusp of the 1st/2nd and then again mid day on the 2nd. There’s a trough at the end of the day or on the cusp of the 2nd/3rd, which is very likely a lowest low thus far. And then on the third, we rally with increasing with momentum moving forward in time. There is some sort of like turnaround. So we rally, increasing with momentum moving forward in time. And then at some point, there’s a sharp decline that either starts on the 3rd or on the 4th. The sharp decline takes us into another lowest low thus far with two local bottoms on a one-day chart there for the 4th……….