Overview:
Apple one-year reading for 2024
Status: November 3rd, 2023 12:15 p.m. Eastern time, reading price is $175.85
Behavioral Trends in 2024:
The overall theme and behavior for Apple in 2024 will be a notable rally, standing out on at least a one-year chart scale, probably on a multi-year scale. This rally presents the opportunity to either close a long position or open a short position for a multi-day or possibly multi-month swing trade. However, this is crossed with a notable decline through multiple support levels, again on at least a one-year chart scale. There is a significant drop indicated, with a lot of cross-reading congruencies indicating the timing of that drop.
Behavior around the highest high:
Behavior around the highest high highlights an important range on a multi-year scale. We’ll be bound by the upper end of this range on a multi-year scale. This means we’ll be bound by the upper end of the range for at least most of the year. At one point, the upper end of the range is pushed higher, indicating a breakout.
Behavior around the lowest low:
Behavior around the lowest low for the year includes a big move higher, standing out on a one-year chart scale. This move will mark the beginning of a rally on a multi-day scale.
Sneak Preview for 2025
The sneak preview for 2025 includes a period of volatility that ends with a fast, sudden move higher. Based on a multi-year scale, the sequence of events suggests significant moves.
Apple for 2024
The year starts with the highest high thus far, moving into the lowest low in February, followed by a prominent peak back to a low or close in early March. There is likely to be another prominent peak, possibly the highest high thus far, in late March, with the lowest low probably occurring again in late March or in April. This back-and-forth behavior continues with the first lowest low appearing in March.
Price Movements Towards Year-End
The lowest low for Q3 and Q4 likely occurs early in December, followed by a significant move. A breakout to the upside is expected at the end of the year, with the highest price level most likely in June and possibly a higher price level in October. This is followed by a sharp decline, moving from a highest high in October to a lowest low in early November, then back to a highest high and another lowest low. This pattern continues with wild behavior in November-December.
Trade Strategies
Exiting long positions from a multi-year standpoint should be considered as the highlighted price level may appear again in 2025 before a sharp decline. A possible highest high for the multi-year scale could occur in June during a big move higher, with a breakout pushing the upper end of that higher high into January. Opening a long position for a multi-day swing trade in the midst of a decline off the highest high of January into February lows, adding to it if the same or lower lows occur in March, and closing the long position in the June high is advisable. If this opportunity is missed, the July high provides another exit point.
Short-Term Trades
For short-term trades, opening a partial short position off the highest high in early October, adding to it if another opportunity arises in late October, and anticipating a significant decline into November’s low is recommended. Out of this low, a big high pushes the upper end of the range higher into December. The main trade involves shorting a rally higher, with a trade opportunity around the lowest low for the year, likely the best trade between October and November. Catching the October low and opening a long position, then closing it when revisiting the highs in November, is also a good strategy.
Monthly Overview:
JANUARY:
In early January, there is a significant high, likely acting as the first significant high for the year. A reversal early in the month will stand out prominently. The high for January, which is likely in the early part of the month, forms when a big move higher occurs from the bottom of the range to the top of the range, following a decline. As we enter 2024, there should be a reversal from a low in December and a move from the bottom of the range to the top, creating a prominent peak for the year thus far. A significant decline occurs towards the later part of January, and an important resistance level is highlighted near the high of January. This resistance level, which has been met and failed to break through many times before on a multi-day scale, will be highlighted near the high.
FEBRUARY:
There is a rally into February with a prominent crest. Early on, there is a failed attempt to break through the same resistance near the low of January, followed by a decline through key support. This leads to a lower move into February, starting bullish in early February but then turning into a decline. A prominent low is likely in mid-February amidst a period of volatility and a sharp drop. Behavior around the high for February includes a peak, with a period of sideways rotation near the high and a sharp drop standing out in that period of sideways rotation. There is a recurring price level highlighted between late February and April. In late February, there is a bit of a rally amidst the volatility, with a sharp drop that stands out followed by a rally. Out of the February low, there is a significant move to the upside. This rally out of the low suggests a significant recovery.
MARCH:
In the midst of the volatility, the market will take us into March, reaching for a distant resistance. This will break through at least one key resistance on a multi-day scale, with a big move higher. When the high for March is met, likely around the second or third week of March, there will be a significant decline back down. This decline revisits the low from early March, followed by a notable move higher, revisited in late March. Either way, an attempt to establish support occurs in late March. It is advised not to chase the decline, as it will be a prominent low on a one-year chart scale. Towards the end of March, there is a significant peak or crest, indicating mixed behavior. March starts with a big move higher out of a trough, followed by a decline back down to a significant trough already visited in early March or late February. An attempt to establish support occurs here. There is a significant move higher and a full retracement of that move, likely into the very end of March or in early April.
APRIL:
In early April, there’s a correlation to a significant decline, probably moving into a trough with increasing momentum. The high forms during a period of volatility that ends with a fast, sudden move higher. Late April sees three pokes through the same price level, followed by a sharp decline. There is a trade opportunity in April, with a low early in the month, a slightly higher trough in mid-April, and a significant crest at the en of April. In the midst of this, there are three pokes through the same price level and a sharp drop. This important price level is revisited, either the same as in late February or another significant one.
MAY:
Declining into another prominent trough in early May, a decline through multiple support levels will form this trough. Out of that trough, there will be a rally that increases with momentum over time, taking us to another prominent peak or crest in the later part, possibly right on the edge of May.
JUNE:
From late May to June, there is a significant peak or crest. The opportunity at the May high will stand out as an important one for the year, and by the end of the year, it will be recognized as a great opportunity. A decline from that crest occurs, taking the market down through support in early June and performing a U-shaped reversal below that price level. The market then comes back and reuses it as support. There is a rally that starts and ends on a multi-day scale near the low, with a lot of price change in late June. Into the June high, there will be a rally increasing with momentum, breaking through horizontal resistance to reach a second resistance, and then pulling back to somewhere between those two price levels. This price level in late June is important, showing a relatively higher and lower price level within close time proximity.
JULY:
There is a big, unexpected move to the upside, reaching for the July high. There is a sideways fluctuating rally and an unexpected amount of movement to the upside into the July high.
AUGUST:
In July and August, or slightly higher in August, a peak is created in August that is sold off from notably on a one-year chart level, leading into an important trough. After that trough, there is a pop and drop, probably taking the price to a higher level in mid-August. Following the August high, there is a decline back down, revisiting the earlier August trough. This decline goes through support on a multi-day scale to meet secondary support, followed by sideways rotation along that support.
SEPTEMEBER:
Early September sees a rally that is halted, resulting in a mixed month with a couple of trade opportunities. It starts with a decline into a trough around the end of August, declining into early September. There is a notable move to the upside at the end of the first week or the beginning of the second week, taking the market to the peak for September. The high for September, a prominent peak or crest on a one-year chart scale, forms with a significant move higher followed by a full retracement back down. Late September features mixed back-and-forth behavior with sideways movement. The low for September likely forms early in the month, with a decline off a peak or crest down through multiple support levels on a multi-day scale. This peak could be the same as the September high or another peak, as the month is quite mixed.
OCTOBER:
In October, there is a notable peak with a significant cross-reading congruency. This peak or crest will be prominent on a one-year chart scale, not necessarily the highest high but significant. It forms when resistance is briefly broken, and then the price falls back down through the same level, creating a peak. This begins with a notable rally, followed by a big decline.
October sees lows early in the month, with erratic behavior back and forth through the same price level. The sharp drop that occurs in early October is followed by a rally The October high may be revisited more than once or involve a crest from a prior month.
NOVEMBER:
In early November, it is advisable to be cautious around the trough. There is a notable rally combined with tricky chart behavior, such as multiple false tops or bottoms, or whipsaw action, making it easy to make the wrong choice quickly. Don’t act impulsively.
A significant low occurs, pushing the upper end of a range higher. There is a notable opportunity near the November high. A failed attempt to break through key resistance on a multi-day scale in late November is followed by a decline through key support. The November high is probably the same as the October high.
DECEMBER:
In early December, there is an intentional fake-out or shake-out by market makers trying to shake people out of the market before a notable move. The chart behavior in early December will involve misdirection.
There should be a rally into an important high around the second or third week of December, meeting a key resistance level that will be sold off notably. This sell-off will include consecutively lower spikes on the way down, taking the market into a prominent trough for the year in late December.
There will be significant price changes, allowing for positioning in both directions.