Solana One-Year Overview Reading for 2024
Current status: September 9th, 2023 – 2:51 p.m. EST. SOL at $19.48 USD.
Behavioral trends in 2024:
The majority of the year is QUITE bullish. We have a highest high for the 10-year period of 2020 through 2029. Caution is advised. There will be multiple false tops and/or bottoms. Some sort of tricky chart behavior is likely to take place, like whipsaw action or a breaking through of a new high making it look like we go higher, and then we reverse.
The rally commences in the beginning of the year and increases with momentum moving forward in time, pushing the upper end of a range higher in early January.
We may have several brief peaks that are easily missed followed by eventual moves to higher price levels.
Behavior around the highest high
Expect a fast, sudden rise on a one-year scale, leading to the highest high(s), possibly indicating two, three, or four significant highs. We’ll have a notable rally on a one-year scale taking us into the high on a multi-year scale.
Behavior around the lowest low
We have a rally that’s halted on a one-year scale by a decline through key support again on a one-year chart kind of scale. We will decline through key support taking us into the low and it will commence right off of like the end of a rally into a sharp drop, with erratic behavior characterized by movement back and forth around the same price level near the lowest low, with possible revisits to a crest amidst the erratic behavior.
There will be significant moves to the downside from highs that will stand out on a one-year chart scale. It looks like there will be the same low multiple times in the midst of price swings.
JANUARY
Out of it a prominent trough that’ll stand out on a one-year scale, there’s a rally along a diagonal trend line breaking through a horizontal resistance on a multi-day scale, meeting a secondary resistance on a multi-year scale, before pulling back between those two price levels. It looks like we have our first highest high on the cusp of January / February.
The completion of a rally at January’s high is a failed attempt to break through key resistance on a multi-day scale. It will look like we’re going to break through based on technicals. Instead, we decline through key support. The low is probably in early January.
FEBRUARY
That January-February cusp rally should increase with momentum moving forward in time, taking us to an important price level where volume will flatten out around the high. We have an important resistance level on a multi-day scale highlighted in early February; it’s a resistance level that we’ve met many times before and failed to break through on the scale of one year. But then we push the upper end of a range higher in late February, a significant rally pushing through that resistance, creating a new high for the year.
MARCH
We have multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance in early March. There will be a significant decline off of the March high taking us through multiple support levels. In late March we have a period of volatility with a sharp drop that will stand out in that period. There is a rally off of the March low; we are advised not to chase that rally.
APRIL
We will then end up at a lower price level in April. There will be a significant trade opportunity. We could see more than one low, and the lowest low of the year thus far– but it’s not going to be the same as the other ones throughout the year. We rally into the end of the month of April and this offers a significant trade opportunity. We have a prominent crest for the year in late April, then we decline off of that rally though multiple resistance levels.
MAY
There will be sideways rotation in early May and then possibly another prominent peak that stands out and it would end a period of sideways rotation. The low in May is an important support level on a multi-year scale. It’s important to note that we may be seeing the low here as well.
There is possibly a lowest low around the cusp of April / May or maybe the early part of May, followed by sideways rotation around the low. There’s a fast move higher, marking the end of that sideway rotation and then a high decline that which increases with momentum moving forward in time. The latter part of May is declining down to and through support on a multi-day scale to meet a second support. And then we rotate sideways along that support.
JUNE
Important range is highlighted in early June. It may be that we are seeing the lowest low and we are bound by that lowest low or it could be that we already saw the lowest low earlier in the year and we are bound by it. But if we did not already see it, we are going to see a lowest low here in June and it should take place at an important range on at least a one-year scale.
Behavior in June’s high is going to be a pop and drop and then a significant decline or bearish price swings in late June that takes us to a late June low, with the possibility of a peak there, too– an important peak within close time proximity to the June low. In any case, that will be the lowest low for the month.
JLUY
We move out out of June’s lowest low in early July. We have a significant move to the upside even in the face of seemingly overwhelming headwinds. We create a new high for the month. We move higher through key resistance on a multi-day scale. We break back down through that same price level near overbought territory or peak. We will sell off from that pretty notably through multiple support levels taking us into another lowest low. It’s likely the same lowest low that we had back in June. We will move out of this lowest low at the cusp of July-August, with a big move from the bottom of the range all the way to the top.
AUGUST
In early August we have a failed attempt to break the key resistance on a multi-day scale, followed by a decline through key support on a multi-day scale, followed by price swings as we move into late August. Around the third week of August we have a pretty sharp drop that will stand out on a one-year scale. High of August is sideways rotation and then a sharp drop out of that sideways rotation. We will likely go from a lowest low for the year on the cusp of July–August into a big move from bottom of range to the top, and then a sharp drop out of that creating price swings as we move into a decline.
SEPTEMBER
In early September there’s a big move out of the decline. This marks one of the best trade opportunities with a big move to the upside, a breakout on a one-year scale, likely in the second or third week taking us to a highest high. We would have a higher price level in November, but it is also possible to see a breakout to a highest high here in September. The latter part of September is a prominent move higher followed by a full retracement of that move.
OCTOBER
Early October is a period of volatility and a fast, sudden move higher that ends that period and it takes place from a month’s low. The month’s high should be a prominent move higher, and then a full retracement of that move back down shortly thereafter, creating a triangular shape near the month’s high. In late October there is sideways rotation. We have a bit of a rally around the cusp of October-November; there’s a trade opportunity there.
NOVEMBER
In early November we decline from that from a crest down to and through support. We do a U-shape reversal below support, come back, reuse it as support, and then a big move off of the November low that’s created in that U-shaped reversal. A big move out of that reaching for distant resistance taking us to a month’s high and possibly a highest high for the year again. It’s either the same high or it’s a higher high, but there’s a notable opportunity there in the midst of the rally into that move into that highest high. It will be an unexpected move towards the end of the month of November. We could see that same price level again in December or that the highest high on the cusp of November-December. We will likely see the same price level there. In any case, it’s going to be an important technical price level on a multi-year scale that’s highlighted around the high for December.
DECEMBER
In early December we successfully turn resistance into new support. In late December we have sideways fluidity, equal amounts of bulls and bears, inflows and outflows usually moving sideways. It could be wide price swings or it could be a narrow range, but it’s usually pretty much sideways flat.
The behavior around the low of December is support with sideways rotation. There is a big move higher, and then we turn resistance into new support and establish support at a higher price level.
Sneak preview for 2025
Erratic behavior back and forth through the same price level in the midst of which we revisit a crest that was recently a passed opportunity on a one-year scale. It could mean that we’re revisiting a crest from 2024. Overall, fairly mixed behavior throughout 2025.